ANRPC lowers its annual forecast for natural rubber production

The Association of Natural Rubber Manufacturing Countries (ANRPC) has downgraded its 2020 feedstock production forecast due to sharp declines in annual production in India and Thailand.

Global production of natural rubber in the first eight months of the year fell 8.7% year-on-year to 7.778 million tonnes. According to ANRPC, in the remaining four months, the indicators will fall 3.8%, and the total production of natural rubber for 2020 will reach 12.901 million tons, down 6.8% from last year's level.

This is 1.9% less than the association predicted a month ago, when it came to 13.149 million tons of rubber per year.

The ANRPC's forecast downgrade is explained by the decline in production indicators in Thailand and India. According to the data obtained by the association, the collection and primary processing of rubber in Thailand "have been seriously affected by an acute shortage of workers," and the coronavirus pandemic in Kerala, where rubber plantations are concentrated, negatively affected production in India.

On the demand side, in the first eight months of the year, it fell 11.7% over last year, to 8.151 million tonnes. Going forward, ANRPC expects demand to grow, especially due to a faster-than-forecast economic recovery in China. In the last four months of 2020, consumption of natural rubber will decrease by 1.8% compared to the same period last year.

According to forecasts, the demand for this raw material for the year as a whole will amount to 12.611 million tons, which is 8.4% lower than last year, but slightly higher than previously expected.